Macro analysis — 25/07/2026

Gold (XAU/USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Gold is refusing to break 4000 despite the year's most hostile yield backdrop, a bullish divergence now reinforced by widening attacks on oil shipping.

Reasoning

Gold added 1.07% on the week while US10Y climbed 3.04% to 4.679 and DXY gained 0.71% — a bullish divergence against its dominant bear driver. The monthly print has flipped to +1.64% from roughly -5% a week ago, so the breakdown through 4000 that the yield surge demanded never materialised; buyers defended that shelf twice. Simultaneous tanker strikes in three waterways, prediction markets pricing Hormuz disrupted beyond a year, and Trump weighing a major strike on Iran restore a geopolitical bid that was ignored all month. Counter-argument: WTI's slide from above 100 to 90.47 on Pakistan-brokered talks removes the inflation-hedge leg that lifted metals on 21-22 July, GLD bled $14.4bn, and Friday's close is stale. Lean long, but small.

Key levels

S 4000/3960 · R 4100/4160

Invalidated if

An H4 close below 4000 kills the long bias and opens 3960. A close above 4100 confirms the leg toward 4160.

Bitcoin

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Rising long-end yields and Fed hike pricing keep compressing the duration-sensitive bid while spot ETFs post a fifth straight outflow session.

Reasoning

Bitcoin lost 64,000 on the yield spike and sits flat over 24 hours at 64,096, with the week at -1.14% against a still-positive +7.19% month. The driver is the curve: 30s at 5% and a live hike scenario compress the duration-sensitive bid, five consecutive sessions of spot ETF redemptions supply steady sell-side, and the retail euphoria flagged earlier this week remains a contrarian warning rather than confirmation. Nasdaq -1.15% Friday and -3.74% monthly confirms BTC is trading as high-beta tech, not digital gold, which is why it splits from a firmer bullion tape. Counter-argument: five sessions of that pressure produced only -1.14%, 62,000 support is untouched, and thin weekend liquidity cuts both ways.

Key levels

S 62000/58500 · R 65800/68000

Invalidated if

A daily close above 65,800 negates the bearish case and opens 68,000. A close below 62,000 confirms liquidation toward 58,500.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days

Primary driver

The rate differential is doing the work: 1969-low jobless claims and 30-year yields at 5% keep a Fed hike inside the distribution.

Reasoning

The dollar is bid on yields: US10Y 4.679 (+3.04% weekly), 30s at 5%, and jobless claims at their lowest since 1969 keep a hike inside the distribution, while the ECB's hawkish hold is already owned by the market. DXY +0.71% on the week alongside EURUSD -0.61% is a genuinely USD-led move rather than a euro-only story, and Trump's threatened tariffs on EU tech add a European risk premium on top. Counter-argument: the index has stalled just under 101.50 for several sessions and is flat at -0.14% monthly, JGB 2-year yields at 1.505% — a near-30-year high — invite BOJ tightening that would drag USDJPY lower, and the tariff lawsuit filed this hour clouds the policy outlook.

Key levels

S 100.90/100.40 · R 101.50/102.20

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 101.50 confirms the leg to 102.20. A daily close below 100.90 turns the bias bearish.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Trump's threatened tariffs on EU tech stack a fresh European risk premium on top of a rate gap that already favours the dollar.

Reasoning

The pair is grinding lower with purpose: -0.32% on the day and -0.61% on the week at 1.1375, pressing the 1.1350 trigger. The rate gap does the heavy lifting — US10Y 4.679 versus a hawkish ECB hold the market already priced last Thursday, plus 1969-low claims that keep the hike tail alive on the dollar side. Trump's tariff threat over alleged plunder of US tech firms is a direct euro negative given the bloc's export exposure, and the widening shipping war raises Europe's energy import bill more than America's. Counter-argument: WTI back at 90.47 from above 100 eases that terms-of-trade drag, the tariff lawsuit questions the legality of the whole levy programme, and the month is flat at -0.04%.

Key levels

S 1.1350/1.1300 · R 1.1450/1.1500

Invalidated if

A daily close below 1.1350 opens 1.1300. A daily close above 1.1450 negates the bearish setup.

Watchlist

• Sunday 21:00 UTC reopen: gap risk on gold/DXY/EURUSD after two-way weekend headlines
• Trump speaks 00:55 UTC — Iran strike language versus EU tariff escalation
• WTI on reopen: back above 95 revives gold's inflation bid, under 88 kills it
• US10Y at 4.70: a clean break re-imposes rate pressure on both gold and BTC
• Monday spot BTC ETF flows: a sixth outflow session confirms the bearish case

Gold (XAU/USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 3/10 · a few days

Primary driver

A structural non-duration bid is keeping gold above 4000 even as real yields press at cycle highs.

Reasoning

Gold closed the week +1.07% while US10Y rose 3.04% to 4.679 and 30s tagged 5% — a divergence saying the bid is structural (central-bank and de-dollarization flow, tariff policy premium) rather than duration-sensitive. Friday's +0.22% close came despite crude dropping over 4% on the Pakistan-brokered talks headline, which printed before the 21:00 UTC close and was therefore partly absorbed. The 4000 shelf has held twice this month despite a $14.4bn GLD outflow. Trump's threatened EU tech tariffs and the lawsuit against his new tariff regime add fiscal and policy-credibility premium. Counter: if US-Iran talks advance, gold loses the inflation-hedge leg while real yields sit at highs — that exact combination broke it twice this month, so conviction stays deliberately low.

Key levels

S 4000/3960 · R 4100/4160

Invalidated if

An H4 close below 4000 kills the long bias and opens 3960. A close above 4100 confirms the leg toward 4160.

Bitcoin

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days

Primary driver

The 30-year yield at 5% is repricing the discount rate for every long-duration risk asset, crypto included.

Reasoning

BTC lost the 64,000 handle as 30-year yields tagged 5%; the cleanest transmission channel into crypto right now is the discount rate, not risk appetite. The week is -1.21% against a still-positive +7.11% month, so this is a stalling uptrend rather than a confirmed break. Five straight sessions of ETF outflows plus retail euphoria into the highs remain a contrarian warning, and VIX at 18.58 shows no panic to fade. Nasdaq -1.15% Friday and -3.74% monthly confirms the same rate-driven de-rating. Counter: BTC is the only live market this weekend and thin liquidity cuts both ways — a credible US-Iran de-escalation could spark a risk-on squeeze back toward 65,800.

Key levels

S 62000/58500 · R 65800/68000

Invalidated if

A daily close above 65,800 negates the bearish case and opens 68,000. A close below 62,000 confirms liquidation toward 58,500.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Rate differentials: the market is pricing US hike risk while every other major bloc faces tariff-driven growth downgrades.

Reasoning

The dollar is being carried by the front end and the long end at once: US10Y 4.679, 30s at 5%, and jobless claims at 1969 lows have the market pricing hike risk rather than cuts. DXY added 0.71% on the week and closed at 101.465, just under the 101.50 trigger. Trump's threat of large tariffs on the EU over the 'pillaging' of US tech firms is a direct relative-growth negative for the euro, the index's dominant weight. Counter: the month is flat at -0.14%, this is the third rejection at 101.50 which shows buyers thinning, and Gulf de-escalation plus the legal challenge to the new tariffs could unwind part of the policy premium.

Key levels

S 101.00/100.90 · R 101.50/102.20

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 101.50 confirms the leg to 102.20. A daily close below 100.90 turns the bias bearish.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Trump's fresh tariff threat over EU treatment of US tech firms is an asymmetric hit to euro-area growth expectations.

Reasoning

EURUSD closed the week -0.61% at 1.1375 and the path of least resistance stays lower. The ECB's hawkish hold is already in the price, while US front-end yields keep repricing toward hikes with 30s at 5% — the differential is doing the work without needing new headlines. Trump's threat of large tariffs on the EU over the alleged pillaging of US tech firms is the fresh, asymmetric risk: it hits European growth expectations directly with no equivalent offset on the US side. Support at 1.1350 has been probed repeatedly. Counter: the pair is flat on the month at -0.04%, short positioning is already crowded, and a Gulf de-escalation that cracks crude helps Europe's terms of trade far more than America's.

Key levels

S 1.1350/1.1300 · R 1.1450/1.1500

Invalidated if

A daily close below 1.1350 opens 1.1300. A daily close above 1.1450 negates the bearish setup.

Watchlist

• Sunday 21:00 UTC reopen: gap risk in gold and DXY on de-escalation headlines
• Confirmation or denial of the Pakistan-brokered, China-backed US-Iran talks
• US10Y above 4.70 and 30-year holding 5% — the dominant driver
• DXY H4 close above 101.50 after three failed attempts
• BTC 62,000: a break confirms the liquidation leg toward 58,500

Gold (XAU/USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Gold is holding a weekly gain against a violent rise in long-end yields, signalling a new structural bid absorbing the real-yield headwind.

Reasoning

The tell is divergence: gold added 1.37% weekly while US10Y rose 3.04% to 4.679 and 30s tagged 5% — the exact combination that broke bullion below 4000 in mid-July. That resilience argues a fresh bid is absorbing the real-yield headwind: coordinated tanker attacks across the Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea, flow through Hormuz now priced impaired beyond twelve months, plus Trump's tariff threat against the EU and a legal challenge to the tariffs themselves. At only +1.94% monthly, positioning shows no euphoria, so this is not a crowded long. Counter-argument: WTI's 3.12% drop to 89.31 removes the inflation-hedge leg that carried metals last week, GLD keeps bleeding, and Friday's 4067 print is stale into a two-way Sunday gap.

Key levels

S 4030/4000/3960 · R 4100/4160

Invalidated if

An H4 close below 4000 kills the long bias and opens 3960. A close above 4100 confirms the leg toward 4160.

Bitcoin

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Rising long-end US yields and live Fed hike risk keep draining liquidity from the longest-duration risk asset.

Reasoning

Bitcoin broke below 64,000 precisely as 30-year yields tagged 5%, then recovered only to 64,162 and went flat over 24 hours — a weak bounce that failed even with a risk-positive de-escalation headline on the tape. As the only market actually trading, that flat print is the cleanest read available: -1.04% weekly against +7.31% monthly leaves real air to give back, and Nasdaq's -3.74% monthly de-rating is the transmission channel into crypto beta. Five straight sessions of ETF outflows confirm the bid is institutional-light. Counter-argument: that same washed-out positioning plus a defended 64,000 shelf makes a squeeze above 65,800 cheap, and thin weekend liquidity exaggerates wicks in both directions.

Key levels

S 62,000/58,500 · R 65,800/68,000

Invalidated if

A daily close above 65,800 negates the bearish case and opens 68,000. A close below 62,000 confirms liquidation toward 58,500.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few weeks

Primary driver

A widening yield advantage with live US hike risk keeps the dollar bid while Europe absorbs a fresh tariff threat.

Reasoning

The dollar closed 101.47, up 0.71% weekly and compressed directly beneath the 101.50 trigger, with the driver unchanged: US10Y at 4.679 and 30s at 5% while 1969-low claims keep a hike in the distribution. The rate side is doing the work, not haven flow — VIX at 18.58 is calm, so this is carry and differential, not fear. Trump's tariff threat against the EU adds a second leg by pressuring the biggest DXY component. Counter-argument: the index is -0.14% monthly, meaning there is no genuine trend momentum yet, and the lawsuit challenging the new tariffs introduces institutional risk to the dollar. Friday's price is stale into Sunday's reopen.

Key levels

S 100.90/100.40 · R 101.50/102.20

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 101.50 confirms the leg to 102.20. A daily close below 100.90 turns the bias bearish.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days

Primary driver

Trump's threat of large tariffs on the EU over US tech stacks a trade-war premium onto an already negative rate differential.

Reasoning

The pair closed 1.1375, -0.32% on the day and -0.61% weekly, sitting just above the 1.1350 breakdown trigger. The new input is Trump threatening large tariffs on the EU for allegedly plundering US tech firms — a direct hit to European terms of trade at a moment when the rate gap already favours the dollar, with US10Y at 4.679 and hike risk priced. Last week's hawkish ECB hold is now fully in the price and no longer offers fresh support. Counter-argument: the pair is flat at -0.04% monthly, so this is a grinding range break, not a trend, and that same hawkish ECB caps how far 1.13 can be pressed without an ECB repricing.

Key levels

S 1.1350/1.1300/1.1250 · R 1.1450/1.1500

Invalidated if

A daily close below 1.1350 opens 1.1300. A daily close above 1.1450 negates the bearish setup.

Watchlist

• Sunday 21:00 UTC reopen: gap risk in gold, DXY, EURUSD after stale Friday closes
• US10Y above 4.75 or 30s holding 5% — the cap on gold and bid for DXY
• Whether Pakistan/China-brokered US-Iran talks hold, or WTI reclaims 95 on tanker attacks
• BTC daily close: 62,000 break versus 65,800 squeeze, only live market this weekend
• Formal detail on Trump's EU tariff threat and the lawsuit against the new tariffs