Macro map

The channels driving the economy, the stories running inside each, and where the market forks next. Updated continuously from the news feed.

Haven / feargeopoliticsIran WarHormuz blockade / shipsHouthi Red Sea frontIran TalksStrikes & counterstrikesCasualty count disputeHunt for missing leaderUS evacuation warningsOil Prices Rise on WarNegotiations / ceasefireMiddle East military…Tanker attacks / Hormuz…US TariffsUkraine WarIran Accuses UkraineGaza Peace DealUSD strengthBOJ-4dEZ CPI-3drate differentialsFed Rate ExpectationsRate Hike PressureFOMC DecisionFed PoliticizationAsset Market ReactionYen Weakness, BOJ InterventionBOJ rate hike pathJapan unilateral interventionUS-Japan joint interventionECB Interest RateBond Yields RiseBoE Interest RateWarsh as Fed ChairRisk appetiteequitiesGold Price RiseUS Bond OutflowsStocks Fall on WarAI Spending ConcernsGlobal Selloff ContagionKorea Circuit BreakersHedge Fund Forced SellingBitcoin Price DropcryptoClarity Act BillISM Svc+2dno scenario yetReal yieldsCore PCE-4dNFP+2dno scenario yettoday-10d-8d-6d-4d-2dtoday+2dEach line is one story, branching off its channel when it began. THICK = how far price actually moved around its news (measured, 4h)fading = going quiet · merging back up = that track ran dry and the story continues on its parent · dotted = weight not measurable.

This EXPLAINS, it does not forecast. The map shows which channel is currently tied to price (measured over the last 60 sessions, out of sample), which branch each past event actually took, and which branches the next events leave open. That same measurement shows these numbers do NOT predict tomorrow's direction — we publish that side too. The “haven” and “risk appetite” lanes measure two faces of the same thing; do not read them as two independent pieces of evidence. Per-asset coefficients live on each asset page.

Before every Fed · ECB · CPI print, the bot sends you scenarios with numeric thresholds — before the number lands. Then we score ourselves against real price.

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