Macro map

The channels driving the economy, the events running inside each, and where the market forks next. Updated continuously from the news feed.

Haven / feargeopolitics72 items · -10d → today · Gold · DXYIran war29 items · -9d → today · Gold · DXYHormuz shipping disruption11 items · -9d → today · Gold · DXYNegotiations8 items · -8d → -3d · Gold · DXYUS-Israel strikes71 items · -10d → today · Gold · DXYHouthi-Saudi conflict · Gold18 items · -10d → today · Gold · DXYUkraine war3 items · -1d → -1d · Gold · DXYEnergy ceasefire3 items · -7d → today · EUR/USD · GoldRussia challenges NATO · EUR/USD1 items · -4d → -3d · GoldHouthi threat to strait · Goldsystemic risk14 items · -10d → -3d · EUR/USD · Gold · DXYFrench budget crisis · EUR/USDReal yieldsFOMCFOMC — price did not reactFOMCFOMC — price did not reactnominal yields27 items · -10d → -2d · Gold · DXY · BTCRising bond yields · BTC15 items · -10d → today · DXY · Gold · BTCFed rate hike expectations · BTC3 items · -8d → -3d · DXY · Gold · BTCPressure on Fed leadership · BTCinflation expectations17 items · -9d → today · Gold · DXYIran war oil prices1 items · -4d → -3d · EUR/USD · GoldECB rate expectations · EUR/USD1 items · -3d → -2d · DXY · GoldUS diesel export row · DXYUS CPI+1dUS PPI+2d0.5–0.7%≥ 0.3%▼ gold▼ BTC▼ EUR≤ 0.1%▲ gold▲ BTC▲ EURno scenario yetUSD strengthtrade1 items · -9d → -8d · DXY · EUR/USD · GoldUS-China relations · EUR/USDrate differentials4 items · -8d → -5d · Gold · USD/JPY · DXYYen and BOJ rates · USD/JPYRisk appetiteISM SvcISM Svc — price did not reactcrypto3 items · -8d → -4d · BTCUS crypto regulation · BTCequities2 items · -6d → -4d · BTC · Gold · DXYAI spending worries · BTCPhysical demandcentral-bank buying2 items · -4d → -2d · GoldCentral bank gold buying · Goldtoday-10d-8d-6d-4d-2dtoday+2d+4d

How to read this map

  • left column = the CHANNEL an event acts through; one lane per channel
  • branch stub = when the event ENTERED THE MAP (first time we logged it), not when it began
  • thicker = more items over a longer run — NOT "hit harder"
  • faint text after the name = the asset this thread leans on more than the rest of the map
  • fainter = longer since its last item
  • arrow at today = the event is still running
  • line fading out at the left edge = the event was already running before this window; we do not know when it began
  • end bar then fading tail = news flow on this event has stopped (not necessarily the event itself)
  • right of today: scheduled events, each branch with its published THRESHOLD

This is EXPLANATION, not forecast. The map files each live event under the channel it acts through; line thickness is LOUDNESS — how much of the news flow that thread is taking up. We used to draw thickness from the real price distance around each item, but measured against that same price it turned out no larger than a randomly chosen 4-hour window (gold 1.00x · BTC 0.60x), so we dropped it rather than label it “impact”. Right of the today marker are scheduled releases, each branch carrying the numeric threshold we publish BEFORE the number lands — then score against real prices in the Event book; click an event name for the full record. The “haven” and “risk appetite” lanes measure two sides of the same thing; do not read them as two independent pieces of evidence.

Before every Fed · ECB · CPI print, the bot sends you scenarios with numeric thresholds — before the number lands. Then we score ourselves against real price.

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