Eurozone flash CPI — scenarios before, scorecard after

Before — what we said

This is the month's first flash estimate, so it is the earliest repricing of ECB expectations — but there is only one real transmission channel: EURUSD. We are deliberately not making a call on gold or Bitcoin. Gold at 4,039.0 is held up by the bear-steepening US curve and fiscal-debasement demand; a 0.1-0.2 percentage point miss in euro-area CPI does not touch that mechanism. Bitcoin at 64,063.84 has essentially no line to euro-area inflation; its moves are a retail-flow story around support. Our running view — EURUSD bullish, conviction 5 — rests on dollar de-preference rather than rate differentials, so today's print can slow that thesis but is unlikely to flip it.

• Core CPI Flash y/y >= 2.6% (tức >= +0.2pp so với dự báo và kỳ trước 2.4%), hoặc CPI Flash y/y >= 3.1% Hot — core y/y at 2.6% or above, or headline at 3.1% or above: markets push back ECB easing expectations and the yield spread tilts toward the euro. EURUSD likely tests 1.1447 then 1.1463; gold and Bitcoin barely move for lack of a channel.
• Core CPI Flash y/y trong khoảng 2.3%-2.5% và CPI Flash y/y trong khoảng 2.8%-3.0% In line — core y/y between 2.3% and 2.5% with headline between 2.8% and 3.0%: this is the base case. The reaction typically fades within an hour, EURUSD holds a 1.1434-1.1447 band worth less than one H4 ATR (0.0022), and the H4 trend stays sideways.
• Core CPI Flash y/y <= 2.2% (tức <= -0.2pp so với 2.4%), hoặc CPI Flash y/y <= 2.7% Cool — core y/y at 2.2% or below, or headline at 2.7% or below: the euro loses its rate support and leans entirely on the de-dollar argument. EURUSD can slip toward 1.1434 then 1.1419; this is the only branch that puts our bullish call in question.

The most telling detail is the gap between headline and core: if headline edges to 2.9% while core stays pinned at 2.4%, the market reads energy rather than sticky inflation — and the EURUSD reaction fades almost immediately.