EUR/USD macro call, 24/09/2026: leaning bearish

Gold (XAU/USD)

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

Record-high real yields and a firmer dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Reasoning

Gold's bearish case rests on the real-rate squeeze. 10-year TIPS at 2.63% (z +2.42) and the nominal 10-year at 5.114% raise the cost of holding bullion, and the MOVE index jumped 14 points to 95.5. The 60-session correlation with DXY is -0.58, and the dollar just gained 0.72% in 24 hours. Speculative longs hold 56.2% of open interest (z +1.44), so a crowded position could unwind if the 4-sigma VaR shock forces more deleveraging. Hormuz attacks and the diesel-ban threat add no bid, because breakevens stay pinned near 2.35%. Counterpoint: gold held flat (+0.07%) through the dollar surge after a 7.8% monthly drop, which hints at seller exhaustion. With a 30% hit rate, confidence stays low.

Key levels

S 4278.6/4261.3 · R 4298.8/4316.5

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 4,316.5 voids the bearish call.

Bitcoin

SIDEWAYS · Conviction 3/10 · a few days · expected -1.00%

Primary driver

Rising yields and crowd euphoria cap upside, but low funding and implied volatility limit the risk of a forced flush.

Reasoning

BTC stays neutral. It is up 10.29% on the week, but momentum has stalled (-0.14% in 24h) just below 85,114 resistance. Macro is a headwind: the 10-year is at 5.114%, MOVE is at z +2.43, and DXY is up 0.72%, with BTC's 60-session correlation at -0.32 to DXY and -0.26 to yields. Social sentiment shows extreme euphoria, a contrarian warning, and speculative futures positioning sits at 11.9% of OI (z +1.64). Yet perp funding has collapsed to 0.013‱ and DVOL is low at 35.8, so leverage is not stretched and a flush is not forced. The CFTC's crypto market-structure rules and the extended US-China truce offer support while the Nasdaq holds near records. Net, we see a modest -1% lean, well short of the 2% threshold.

Key levels

S 82665/82150 · R 85114/86075

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 86,075 turns the call bullish; an H4 close below 82,150 turns it bearish.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected +0.60%

Primary driver

Widening US rate advantage as markets price an October Fed hike.

Reasoning

The dollar is backed by a widening rate advantage. The 10-year at 5.114% and the 2-year at 4.71% keep an October Fed hike priced after hawkish remarks from Collins and Barr, and US business activity just posted its fastest growth in more than five years. DXY is up 0.72% on the day and 2.17% on the month, while EUR/USD is pressing measured support at 1.1378. The broad dollar index including CNY and MXN sits at z -0.13, so the move is not stretched against its one-year range. Risks: the extended US-China truce and resumed US-Iran talks drain haven demand, and a 30-year-high JGB yield could pull Japanese money home and away from Treasuries. Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next test.

Key levels

S ~100.4

Invalidated if

A DXY daily close below ~100.4, or an EUR/USD H4 close above 1.1416, voids the bullish call.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 5/10 · a few days · expected -0.55%

Primary driver

Surging US yields widen the rate gap against the euro.

Reasoning

EUR/USD's bearish case mirrors the dollar. The pair's 60-session correlation with US 10-year yields is -0.39, and yields just hit 5.114%. The pair fell 0.59% in 24 hours and 2.47% in a month, and it now sits on 1.1378, a support tested seven times and only 0.1 ATR away. Speculators are only mildly short (-2.9% of OI, z -1.03), so positioning is not exhausted. A clean H4 break of 1.1378 exposes 1.1364 and 1.1357. Counterpoint: repeated tests often produce a bounce first, and an H4 ATR of just 0.002 argues against a fast slide; a 0.55% drop to about 1.1317 over days requires breaking the whole support cluster. With a 48% hit rate, confidence stays moderate.

Key levels

S 1.1378/1.1364/1.1357 · R 1.1392/1.1404/1.1416

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 1.1416 voids the bearish call.

Watchlist

• US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Sep 24 (f/c 201K, prior 196K)
• MOVE index and the 10-year near 5.114%: a further bond sell-off pressures gold and BTC
• JGB 10-year above 3%: risk of Japanese repatriation out of Treasuries
• White House decision on a 90-day diesel export ban
• Revised UoM inflation expectations Sep 25 (prior 4.6%)

Gold (XAU/USD)

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

Real yields near 2008 highs and a firm dollar keep the opportunity cost of holding gold punishing.

Reasoning

Gold stays heavy because the real-rate squeeze has not eased. 10-year TIPS are at 2.63% (z +2.42), the 10-year at 5.114% is a 2007 high, and the 2-year at 4.71% prices an October Fed hike. The measured 60-session correlation to DXY is -0.58, and the dollar is up 0.92% on the week. A -0.42 correlation with VIX shows gold gets sold in stress, not bought, consistent with the VaR-shock forced selling in the news. MOVE jumping to 95.45 raises that risk. Oil offers no inflation-hedge bid, with WTI down 5.89% on the week despite only 10 ships transiting Hormuz. Speculative longs remain crowded at 56.2% of OI (z +1.44), leaving room to unwind. Counterpoint: gold is already down 7.95% on the month and sits just 0.2 ATR above 4,278.6 support. A Japanese intervention that knocks the dollar could spark a squeeze.

Key levels

S 4278.6/4261.3/4240.4 · R 4298.8/4316.5

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 4,316.5 voids the bearish call.

Bitcoin

SIDEWAYS · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected +0.60%

Primary driver

A strong weekly rally is running into resistance at 84,000 while high real yields cap follow-through.

Reasoning

BTC is up 9.76% on the week but is pressing 84,000 resistance, just 0.2 ATR away. The rally looks spot-driven rather than leveraged: perp funding is nearly flat at 0.013‱ (z -0.58) and DVOL is subdued at 35.77 (z -1.01), so there is no froth to flush. CFTC's new crypto market-structure rules add a modest regulatory tailwind, and the 0.31 correlation with a record-high Nasdaq helps. Against that, BTC's measured correlations to DXY (-0.32) and the 10-year (-0.26) point the wrong way while yields sit at 2007 highs. Speculative positioning jumped 4.65 points in a single session to 11.9% of OI (z +1.64). Crowd sentiment is split to extremes, which argues for chop rather than a trend. A break of either 86,075 or 82,150 is needed to commit.

Key levels

S 82665/82150 · R 84000/85114/86075

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 86,075 turns the call bullish; an H4 close below 82,150 turns it bearish.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 5/10 · a few days · expected +0.55%

Primary driver

Markets pricing an October Fed hike keep US yield differentials wide in the dollar's favor.

Reasoning

The dollar has momentum: DXY is up 0.92% on the week and 2.24% on the month, at 101.138. The Fed signal driving it is intact. Collins warned of a significant inflation pickup and Barr's hawkish remarks cemented October hike pricing, with the 2-year at 4.71% (z +2.59). US business activity grew at its fastest pace in over five years, so the data are not pushing back. EUR/USD down 0.57% in 24h confirms the leg, and euro speculative shorts are only moderate at -2.9% of OI, leaving room to extend. The main risk is Japan. With USD/JPY near 160 and the JGB 10-year at a 30-year high of 3.055%, MoF intervention could knock DXY sharply lower in hours. That is why confidence stays at 5 despite a clean rates story.

Key levels

S ~100.4

Invalidated if

A DXY daily close below ~100.4, or an EUR/USD H4 close above 1.1404, voids the bullish call.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

A widening US-euro rate gap driven by Fed hike pricing keeps the euro offered.

Reasoning

EUR/USD is capped right at 1.1378 resistance (7 touches, 0.0 ATR) after falling 0.57% in 24h and 2.45% on the month. The measured 60-session correlation with the US 10-year is -0.39. With the 10-year at 5.114% and the 2-year pricing an October Fed hike, the rates channel keeps pressing the pair lower. The macro gap is wide: US business activity is at a five-year high, while Europe carries the energy shock from Hormuz disruption. Euro speculative positioning is only mildly short at -2.9% of OI (z -1.03), so shorts are not crowded. This is also the pair where the call has held up best, at 48% accuracy, so confidence can sit a notch higher. Risk: a Japanese intervention that broadly weakens the dollar could lift EUR/USD through 1.1404.

Key levels

S 1.1364/1.1357 · R 1.1378/1.1392/1.1404

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 1.1404 voids the bearish call.

Watchlist

• USD/JPY near 160: any Japanese MoF intervention would hit DXY and lift gold/EUR
• US jobless claims, Sep 24 12:30 UTC (forecast 201K, prior 196K)
• Revised UoM inflation expectations, Sep 25 14:00 UTC (prior 4.6%)
• US 10-year at 5.114% and MOVE at 95.45: bond stress spilling into equities?
• Hormuz transits (10 ships) and progress in US-Iran shuttle talks

Gold (XAU/USD)

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

10-year real yields at 2.63%, a z-score of +2.42 and near their highest since 2008, keep the opportunity cost of holding gold punitive.

Reasoning

Gold's rate headwind is intact, and gold is being sold as a funding asset rather than bought as a hedge. The 60-day correlations run -0.58 to DXY and -0.35 to US 10-year yields, and both are pushing lower: DXY is +0.87% on the week and the 10-year sits at 5.114%. Speculative longs remain crowded at 56.2% of open interest (z +1.44), so a bond-vol shock like the 4-sigma VaR event invites forced liquidation. The VIX correlation is inverted at -0.42, meaning any volatility spike likely drags gold lower rather than lifting it. Price is pinned just under 4,298.8 resistance with 4,316.5 (9 touches) above. Counter-argument: gold is already -7.82% on the month, and a 2-year yield pullback (-5bp) could spark a short-covering pop.

Key levels

S 4278.6/4261.3 · R 4298.8/4316.5

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 4,316.5 voids the bearish call.

Bitcoin

SIDEWAYS · Conviction 3/10 · a few days · expected +0.50%

Primary driver

After a 10% weekly rally, BTC is caught between Nasdaq support (+0.31 correlation) and dollar and yield headwinds (-0.32/-0.26), with no directional edge.

Reasoning

BTC has already banked a 10.07% weekly gain and is consolidating: -0.34% over 24h, sitting mid-range between 83,500 support and 85,114 resistance. The drivers offset each other. A record Nasdaq and the CFTC's crypto market-structure clarity are supportive, while the 10-year at 5.114% and a firmer DXY weigh via the -0.32 dollar correlation. Derivatives show no stretch: funding is flat at 0.013‱, DVOL is 35.77 (z -1.01), and spec positioning at 11.9% of OI is elevated but eased 6.4 points over five sessions. Social chatter is extreme in both directions, with crash panic next to bottom-fishing FOMO. That is a contrarian flag without a direction. Risk: low implied vol often precedes a sharp break either way.

Key levels

S 83500/82150 · R 85114/86075

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 86,075 turns the call bullish; an H4 close below 82,150 turns it bearish.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 5/10 · a few days · expected +0.55%

Primary driver

Hawkish Fed repricing toward an October hike, backed by Collins and Barr, keeps US front-end yields the highest-carry anchor among majors.

Reasoning

The dollar is up 0.87% on the week and 2.19% on the month, tracking a Fed that has turned openly hawkish. Collins warned inflation could rise 'significantly' and 2-year yields at 4.71% (z +2.59) price an October hike. US flash PMI activity hit a 5-year high, undercutting any slowdown narrative. Relative fundamentals also favor USD: France's budget crisis weighs on EUR, the largest DXY component, and EUR/USD is -0.53% over 24h. The main cap is USD/JPY near 160, where Japanese intervention risk has resurfaced after the BOJ hike and JGBs at 3.055%. A yen-driven drop could clip DXY even while the EUR leg stays weak. The broad USD index at z -0.13 shows the rally is not yet extended.

Key levels

S ~100.4

Invalidated if

A DXY daily close below ~100.4, or an EUR/USD H4 close above 1.1404, voids the bullish call.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected -0.55%

Primary driver

A fresh French budget crisis adds euro-specific fiscal risk on top of a widening US rate advantage.

Reasoning

EUR/USD is -0.53% over 24h, -0.72% on the week and -2.41% on the month, a trend the system has called correctly for weeks. The rates channel is working, with a -0.39 correlation to US 10-year yields now at 5.114%. The newest headline adds a euro-specific leg: France faces a budget crisis and possible government collapse as debt costs rise, which threatens OAT-Bund spread widening. Price sits on 1.1378 support (7 touches, 0.3 ATR), and a break opens 1.1364 and 1.1357. Counter-risk: speculative EUR positioning is already -2.9% of OI (z -1.03), so shorts are partly crowded. A soft US jobless claims print could squeeze the pair back toward 1.1404.

Key levels

S 1.1378/1.1357 · R 1.1392/1.1404

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 1.1404 voids the bearish call.

Watchlist

• US jobless claims today 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K, prior 196K)
• France budget/government stability and OAT-Bund spreads
• USD/JPY near 160: Japanese intervention risk
• MOVE at 95.45: further bond-vol spike risks forced deleveraging
• Revised UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (prior 4.6%)

Gold (XAU/USD)

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

Real yields at 2.63% (z +2.42), with four Fed hikes newly priced, keep raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Reasoning

The real-rate squeeze remains gold's dominant headwind. 10-year TIPS sit at 2.63% and the 2-year at 4.71% (z +2.59), and the market now prices four hikes through June 2027. Price confirms the pressure: gold is down 0.85% in 24h, 2.17% on the week and 8.65% on the month. Breakevens are pinned at 2.35%, so oil is not feeding an inflation bid. The measured correlations point the same way: gold is -0.58 against DXY and -0.35 against US10Y, and both are rising. Gold's -0.42 link to VIX turns today's VIX rise into a drag, not a haven bid. Hormuz and NATO headlines have not lifted it for weeks. Specs hold 56.2% of OI (z +1.44), which leaves room to liquidate. Counterpoint: the monthly drop is stretched and 4240.4 is a four-touch support. A soft claims print or a yen intervention could spark a short-covering bounce toward 4278.6.

Key levels

S 4240.4/4221.1/4201.7 · R 4261.3/4278.6/4298.8

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 4,298.8 voids the bearish call.

Bitcoin

SIDEWAYS · Conviction 3/10 · a few days · expected -0.80%

Primary driver

Hawkish Fed repricing weighs on BTC, but capitulation sentiment and flat leverage cap the downside within the 82,150–85,114 range.

Reasoning

BTC is absorbing the four-hike repricing: it fell 1.3% in 24h and slipped below 83,000. That fits its measured -0.32 correlation with DXY and -0.26 with US10Y. Yet the weekly gain is still 9.01%, so this looks like a pullback inside an uptrend, not a breakdown. Leverage is clean: funding is flat at 0.013‱ (z -0.58) and DVOL sits at 35.77 (z -1.01), so a forced-liquidation cascade is unlikely. Social sentiment shows capitulation and heavy irony, which is a contrarian near-term floor signal. CFTC's new crypto market-structure rules add a structural tailwind, and Nasdaq's +5.27% week supports the risk channel. The counter-case is spec length at 11.9% of OI (z +1.64). If yields grind higher, that length could unwind through 82,150. The drift expected is too small to call a trend.

Key levels

S 82665/82150/81449 · R 83500/84000/85114

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 85,114 turns the call bullish; an H4 close below 82,150 turns it bearish.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected +0.55%

Primary driver

Front-end repricing toward four Fed hikes widens the US rate advantage over peers.

Reasoning

The dollar is riding the most hawkish Fed repricing of the cycle. Rates now price four hikes through June 2027, with the 2-year at 4.71% (z +2.59) and the 10-year at 5.114%, the highest since 2007. DXY confirms it: +0.15% in 24h, +1.02% on the week and +2.35% on the month, while EUR/USD fell 0.67%. Broad USD sits at z -0.13, so the move is not yet stretched against a one-year baseline. Europe's own stress adds to the case: France's budget crisis and Russian incursions into NATO airspace weigh on the euro side of the index. US business activity is running at a five-year high, which keeps the Fed narrative credible. The main risk is Japan: with USD/JPY near 160 after the BOJ hike, intervention could knock DXY sharply lower. The US-China truce extension also trims haven demand.

Key levels

S ~100.4 · R n/a

Invalidated if

A DXY daily close below ~100.4, or an EUR/USD H4 close above 1.1404, voids the bullish call.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected -0.55%

Primary driver

A widening US-euro rate gap, compounded by France's budget crisis, keeps the euro offered.

Reasoning

EUR/USD is losing on rates and on European risk at the same time. The pair fell 0.67% in 24h, 0.86% on the week and 2.54% on the month, tracking its measured -0.39 correlation with US10Y as the 10-year holds at 5.114%. France's budget crisis raises sovereign-spread risk. Crude above $100 hurts the eurozone's terms of trade. Russian incursions over Poland and Romania add a regional risk discount. Price is capped just under 1.1378, a seven-touch resistance, and the next supports sit at 1.1364 and 1.1357. The counter-case is positioning: specs are already net short at -2.93% of OI (z -1.03), so a soft US print or a Japan intervention that hits the dollar broadly could trigger a squeeze toward 1.1404.

Key levels

S 1.1364/1.1357/1.1327 · R 1.1378/1.1392/1.1404

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 1.1404 voids the bearish call.

Watchlist

• US jobless claims today 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K, prior 196K)
• USD/JPY near 160: Japan intervention risk for DXY/gold
• Gold 4240.4 support vs 4298.8 invalidation
• BTC range edges 82,150 / 85,114
• Sep 25: BOE's Bailey; revised UoM inflation expectations (prior 4.6%)

Gold (XAU/USD)

BEARISH · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -0.70%

Primary driver

Record-high real yields, with 10-year TIPS at 2.63% and four Fed hikes priced, keep capping gold.

Reasoning

Rising real yields remain gold's dominant headwind: 10-year TIPS sit at 2.63% (z +2.42) and 10-year nominals at 5.121%, with four Fed hikes priced through mid-2027. Measured 60-session correlations back this, at -0.58 versus DXY and -0.35 versus the US 10-year, and both are climbing: the dollar is up 1.06% and yields 3.52% on the week. In this regime gold falls when VIX and oil rise (inverted correlations of -0.42 and -0.26), so the Iran headlines are not a bid. Speculative longs still hold 56.2% of open interest (z +1.44), which leaves liquidation fuel below 4,261.3. The counterpoint is that gold is already down 8.23% on the month and sits on 5-touch support, so a failed breakdown could snap back toward 4,299.6.

Key levels

S 4261.3/4240.4/4221.1 · R 4278.6/4299.6/4316.5

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 4,299.6 voids the bearish call.

Bitcoin

SIDEWAYS · Conviction 4/10 · a few days · expected -1.50%

Primary driver

Hawkish Fed repricing and a firmer dollar weigh on BTC, but the lack of leverage limits the downside.

Reasoning

Bitcoin sits right on 83,500 support after slipping 1.07% in 24 hours, and the rates backdrop has turned hostile: four Fed hikes are priced, 10-year yields are at 5.121% and the dollar is firming. Measured correlations point the same way, at -0.32 versus DXY and -0.26 versus the US 10-year, while Nasdaq, its main positive link (+0.31), is flat. Retail is heavily bullish-tagged even as $84K keeps failing, a contrarian warning, and speculative positioning is elevated at 11.9% of OI (z +1.64). Yet funding is near zero (0.013‱) and DVOL is subdued at 35.77, so there is no leveraged long overhang to force a flush, and the week is still up 9.26%. The skew leans modestly lower toward 82,150, but not far enough for a directional call.

Key levels

S 83500/82665/82150 · R 85114/86075

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 85,114 turns the call bullish; an H4 close below 82,150 turns it bearish.

DXY (USD)

BULLISH · Conviction 5/10 · a few days · expected +0.60%

Primary driver

US rate differentials keep widening as markets price four more Fed hikes.

Reasoning

The dollar's edge is rate differentials: US 2-year yields are at 4.71% (z +2.59) and 10-years at 5.121% as markets price four more Fed hikes, and broad USD is up 1.301 points over five sessions. The euro side adds support, with France facing a fresh budget crisis and Russian incursions near Poland and Romania weighing on European risk; EUR/USD is down 0.84% on the week. The US–China truce extension and Xi's Washington visit reduce tail risk without undercutting the dollar's yield appeal. The risks are Japan's rate hike and intervention risk with USD/JPY near 160, either of which could knock the yen-heavy DXY, and the 2-year slipped 5bp in the last session. Without DXY candles, levels are proxied through EUR/USD.

Key levels

S ~100.4 · R —

Invalidated if

A DXY daily close below ~100.4, or an EUR/USD H4 close above 1.1405, voids the bullish call.

EUR/USD

BEARISH · Conviction 6/10 · a few days · expected -0.60%

Primary driver

Soaring US yields collide with fresh European stress from France's budget crisis.

Reasoning

The euro stays under pressure from a widening policy and risk gap: US 10-year yields are at 5.121% with four Fed hikes priced, and EUR/USD carries a measured -0.39 correlation to US 10-year yields. European-specific drags are fresh, as France faces a new budget crisis and possible government collapse while debt costs climb, and Russian military activity near Poland and Romania adds eastern-flank risk. The pair is down 0.65% in 24 hours and 2.52% on the month, pinned just under 7-touch resistance at 1.1378. A break of 1.1357 opens 1.1327. The counterpoint is that speculators are already net short (-2.9% of OI, z -1.03), so short-covering above 1.1378 is plausible, and BOJ tightening could soften the broad dollar.

Key levels

S 1.1364/1.1357/1.1327 · R 1.1378/1.1392/1.1405

Invalidated if

An H4 close above 1.1405 voids the bearish call.

Watchlist

• Iran–US escalation risk in the Indian Ocean and Hormuz transit counts
• Revised UoM inflation expectations (Sep 25, 14:00 UTC; prior 4.6%)
• BOE Governor Bailey speech (Sep 25, 09:15 UTC)
• USD/JPY near 160: Japan intervention risk to the dollar
• Gold 4,261.3 support; EUR/USD 1.1378 resistance