Bitcoin — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved Bitcoin. Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
Current view
BEARISH
weak signal
Scored hit rate
50% across 4 calls that reached their deadline
⚠️ Only 4 of 30 calls have been scored — shown for transparency, but too small a sample to be statistically meaningful yet.
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Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- BULLISHPolarised, capitulation-flavoured retail positioning against price that refuses to break 63,000 despite persistent ETF outflows is a weak contrarian long.
- BULLISHBitcoin is outperforming a de-rating Nasdaq, sharing gold's debasement bid rather than trading as pure equity beta.
- BEARISHFront-end yields and live Fed hike pricing keep draining liquidity from the highest-beta asset.
- BEARISHRising yields and risk-off drain leverage while the regulatory catalyst evaporates.
- NEUTRALCrypto-specific ETF outflows and extreme two-sided crowd offset any haven bid, pinning price in range.
- BEARISHRetail euphoria colliding with five straight ETF outflow days signals distribution near a short-term top.
- NEUTRALEquity/credit risk-off is spilling toward crypto but BTC is holding support with no capitulation.
- NEUTRALBTC is range-bound with extreme retail euphoria flashing a contrarian warning near the top of the 61k-66k band.
- NEUTRALExtreme crowd euphoria sits against record margin leverage while price stays mid-range.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
Multiple explosions reported near Bandar Abbas and in Ahvaz, Iran, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
x.com +3US missile reportedly struck Suza town on Iran's Qeshm Island, Iranian state media Tasnim says.
x.comIran strikes US bases at Al-Faysal and Prince Hassan, Tasnim reports - major escalation.
x.comIranian missile strike kills at least two US troops, hits prefab housing units
x.com +2Air raid sirens sound across Bahrain as Iran launches new wave of ballistic missiles and drones.
x.com +3Iran rejects US cease-fire proposal delivered by Iraq's leader, NYT reports.
x.com +3Explosion heard on the southern coast of Iran's Qeshm Island, state broadcaster reports.
x.comGlobal markets slide as US-Iran escalation pushes Brent above $100, yields hit year-highs.
cointelegraph.com +7Trump says he's close to ordering the biggest strike yet on Iran.
x.com +3Iranian strikes on CIA facilities raise questions of Russian involvement, escalating the conflict further
x.comRubio warns Iran's Hormuz threat risks global fallout as US strikes Iran for an 11th straight night.
cnbc.com +1Iran's Lark Island hit by a US missile strike, Tasnim reports.
x.com