DXY (USD) — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved DXY (USD). Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
- 1 session
- +0.34%
- 5 sessions
- +0.38%
Close of the most recent completed session (daily candle), not a live quote. Entry/exit levels and invalidation live in the call itself.
Current view
BULLISH
Scored hit rate
41% across 59 calls that reached their deadline
The full call — reasoning, levels, invalidation — reaches you in the bot the moment it publishes, instead of waiting to open here. Get free analysis
Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself. EVERY call counts toward the denominator — including when price goes sideways: “sideways” is itself a prediction, and it counts as wrong if price breaks the band.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- Turned BULLISH
- Turned BEARISH
- Turned NEUTRAL
The line is real price, session by session. Each marker is a point where we changed our call, placed at the price at that moment. Look at the line AFTER each marker to see whether that turn was right. The day-by-day detail is just below.
- BULLISHOil-driven upside risk to Wednesday's CPI and the EUR/USD break below 1.1164 support a firmer dollar.
- SIDEWAYSFront-end yields at 4.75% underpin the dollar, but the easing term-premium bid stalls further upside before CPI.
- SIDEWAYSHigh front-end yields support the dollar, while stress at the long end and Bessent's auction cuts offset that support.
- SIDEWAYSEuropean fiscal stress supporting the dollar is cancelled out by a softening US front end and pressure on Fed independence.
- SIDEWAYSHawkish front-end pricing supports the dollar, but NY Fed FX intervention and today's yield relief cap upside.
- SIDEWAYSRate support for the dollar is capped by NY Fed intervention in FX markets on behalf of the Treasury.
- SIDEWAYSFront-end yields at 4.83% support the dollar, but the relief in 10y yields is trimming its momentum.
- BULLISHTerm-premium-driven US yields at 2002 highs plus euro-area fiscal stress keep the dollar bid.
- SIDEWAYSDollar strength rests on euro-side fiscal stress, while softer US jobs data has trimmed Fed hike pricing.
- SIDEWAYSA softening front end after the 29k NFP offsets support from euro weakness.
- SIDEWAYSEuro-specific fiscal stress and high US yields support the dollar, but the payrolls miss caps its policy premium.
- BULLISHEuropean fiscal stress, not US rates, is driving dollar demand as French spreads and gilt yields blow out.
- SIDEWAYSEuro fragmentation stress and the 5.29% US 10y lift the dollar, but soft Core PCE limits rate-differential support.
- BULLISHFront-end yields at 4.81% with ~125bp of further Fed hikes priced keep rate differentials firmly in the dollar's favour.
- SIDEWAYSHike-pricing front-end yields support the dollar, but the threat of Japanese intervention caps the upside.
- SIDEWAYSFront-end yields pricing an October hike support the dollar, but the rates-FX link stays loose ahead of core PCE.
- SIDEWAYSOctober hike pricing supports the dollar, but broad USD momentum has stalled and the Friday close was soft.
- SIDEWAYSFront-end yields at 4.85% support the dollar, but Washington's push for a stronger yen caps it.
- BULLISHUS rate differentials keep widening as markets price four more Fed hikes.
- BULLISHHawkish Fed guidance and hot US activity data are pushing front-end yields higher and cementing October hike pricing.
- BULLISHFront-end yields at 4.76% with an October Fed hike priced keep the dollar bid.
- BULLISHA US 2y at 4.67% pricing an October hike no G10 peer can match, set against fresh European political stress.
- BULLISHFront-end yields at 4.67% price a Fed still guiding higher, while Europe delivers a political shock the ECB cannot match with rates.
- BULLISHFront-end differentials: the 2y at 4.67% after a 12-0 hike to 4.00% with more guided.
- BULLISHPolicy divergence is widening: the Fed is priced for an October hike while JPMorgan pushed the next ECB move out to March 2027.
- SIDEWAYSA weak yen leg into tonight's BOJ lifts the dollar, but hawkish BOE repricing puts a bid under sterling and caps the index.
- BULLISHThe rates-FX link has reconnected after four weeks, with two-year yields at 4.65% (z +2.71) pulling the dollar through 100.
- SIDEWAYSA 97%-priced hike is not a dollar catalyst while broad USD sits at z -1.32 against 2y yields at z +2.69.
- SIDEWAYSThe rates-FX link stays broken: broad USD at z -1.5 refuses to follow 2s at 4.56% and a near-certain hike.
- SIDEWAYSThe rates-FX transmission stays broken: record front-end yields are not buying the dollar ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
UK PM Burnham says the Fairford incident was almost certainly carried out by Iran's IRGC, widening the conflict's reach.
x.comAnti-ship ballistic missiles reportedly fired from Iran's Yazd province toward UAE's Fujairah port, per Sabereen News.
x.comHouthis claim strikes on Dammam airport and Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia's eastern province; Riyadh has not confirmed.
x.com +2Trump announces Russia and Ukraine agree to an energy ceasefire, effective immediately, easing supply and geopolitical risk premium.
x.com +6Trump says he will 'look at' joining Saudi Arabia against the Houthis after the deadly airport strike.
cnbc.comAttack on Saudi Arabia's main airport kills 12 and wounds over 300, adding fresh pressure on an already strained Middle East.
x.comHouthi missile strike kills people at Riyadh airport, forcing evacuation and closure of Saudi Arabia's main international hub.
x.com +12Iran's Revolutionary Guards say an oil tanker exploded and caught fire after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz.
x.com +1Russia reportedly supplying missiles to Iran after helping Tehran target US bases across the region.
x.comTrump says Putin agreed to release Russian diesel onto global markets, raising hopes for lower fuel prices and easing inflation pressure.
x.com +8New York Fed intervened in the FX market on behalf of the US Treasury.
x.com +1US payrolls badly miss at 29k versus 90k forecast; unemployment rises even as household-survey employment jumps 406k.
cnbc.com +4