DXY (USD) — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved DXY (USD). Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
Current view
BULLISH
weak signal
Scored hit rate
100% across 2 calls that reached their deadline
⚠️ Only 2 of 30 calls have been scored — shown for transparency, but too small a sample to be statistically meaningful yet.
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Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- BULLISHFront-end yield support plus a 60-year low in unemployment and an ECB on hold keeps the dollar bid against weak crosses into Wednesday's FOMC.
- BULLISHThe dollar is bid on relative weakness in EUR and JPY plus a defensive funding bid from credit outflows, not on domestic strength.
- BULLISHJobless claims at 1969 lows keep US hike risk priced, anchoring front-end yield support for the dollar.
- BULLISHFastest front-end repricing in months plus USD haven demand on the oil shock.
- NEUTRALYen at a 40-year low props the dollar, but Tokyo intervention threat and Thursday ECB cap direction.
- NEUTRALThe dollar coils in a tight range as war-risk bid and firm front-end yields offset each other ahead of Thursday's ECB.
- NEUTRALRising yields support USD but the haven bid stays muted, leaving the index rangebound.
- NEUTRALThe dollar is caught between haven/safe-yield demand and record long-end funding costs, leaving it directionless.
- NEUTRALHaven and energy terms-of-trade support offsets easing front-end yields and fiscal deterioration.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
Multiple explosions reported near Bandar Abbas and in Ahvaz, Iran, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
x.com +3US missile reportedly struck Suza town on Iran's Qeshm Island, Iranian state media Tasnim says.
x.comIran strikes US bases at Al-Faysal and Prince Hassan, Tasnim reports - major escalation.
x.comIranian missile strike kills at least two US troops, hits prefab housing units
x.com +2Air raid sirens sound across Bahrain as Iran launches new wave of ballistic missiles and drones.
x.com +3Oil tanker explodes after hitting sea mine in Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media reports
x.com +5US pauses Iran bombing campaign as Saudi-Houthi Red Sea front erupts, geopolitical risk spikes.
x.com +7Iran rejects US cease-fire proposal delivered by Iraq's leader, NYT reports.
x.com +3Explosion heard on the southern coast of Iran's Qeshm Island, state broadcaster reports.
x.comGlobal markets slide as US-Iran escalation pushes Brent above $100, yields hit year-highs.
cointelegraph.com +7Trump says he's close to ordering the biggest strike yet on Iran.
x.com +3Brent crude tops $100 a barrel with talk of a run toward $120.
cnbc.com +8