EUR/USD — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved EUR/USD. Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
Current view
BEARISH
moderate signal
Scored hit rate
100% across 1 calls that reached their deadline
⚠️ Only 1 of 30 calls have been scored — shown for transparency, but too small a sample to be statistically meaningful yet.
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Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- BEARISHA widening growth gap — German prelim GDP seen slowing to 0.1% from 0.3% — leaves the euro carrying both weak data and a Russia-related risk premium.
- BEARISHEurope is absorbing a widening geopolitical risk premium — IRGC threats against Britain and Red Sea supply disruption — on top of an adverse rate differential.
- BEARISHTrump's fresh threat of major tariffs on the EU adds a trade-war discount on top of an already negative rate differential.
- BEARISHECB hold plus Europe's larger energy-import exposure tilts policy divergence toward USD.
- NEUTRALRange-bound into Thursday's ECB, the decisive near-term catalyst with rate seen held at 2.40%.
- NEUTRALEUR/USD is pinned in range awaiting Thursday's ECB rate decision and press conference, the pair's dominant near-term catalyst.
- NEUTRALECB hold plus firming eurozone PMIs offset a mild risk-off dollar bid ahead of Thursday.
- BEARISHThe euro carries the region's energy-import exposure to the Iran oil shock, with a likely on-hold ECB offering no offset.
- BEARISHThe eurozone is the cleanest structural loser from a physical Gulf energy supply shock.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
Romania downs third Russian drone; president calls the airspace breaches intolerable
x.com +1US jobless claims hit a 60-year low as ECB holds rates steady, boosting the dollar.
x.comIran's IRGC warns Britain will be a target if it backs the US militarily
x.comTrump threatens EU with major tariffs over alleged 'robbing' of US tech giants
cnbc.comECB holds rates steady, signals door still open for further hikes.
x.comTraders eye ECB September rate hike as energy price spike stokes inflation risk
cnbc.comCrude and gas prices climb ahead of today's ECB rate decision as Alphabet shares slide
x.com +1Global bond yields surge as oil prices jump, stoking inflation fears
x.com +1Russia reportedly unwilling to return occupied Ukrainian territory, seeks buffer zone
x.comUS average hourly earnings hit record $37.64 in June, up 3.5% year-on-year
x.comAndy Burnham set to become UK's seventh PM in a decade, markets watch for policy risk.
x.com +1