EUR/USD — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved EUR/USD. Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
- 1 session
- -0.10%
- 5 sessions
- -0.45%
Close of the most recent completed session (daily candle), not a live quote. Entry/exit levels and invalidation live in the call itself.
Current view
BEARISH
Scored hit rate
47% across 60 calls that reached their deadline
The full call — reasoning, levels, invalidation — reaches you in the bot the moment it publishes, instead of waiting to open here. Get free analysis
Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself. EVERY call counts toward the denominator — including when price goes sideways: “sideways” is itself a prediction, and it counts as wrong if price breaks the band.
Which channel is moving EUR/USD
Most closely tied over the last 60 sessions: Real yields (-0.39).
- Real yields+0.01%10-year yield today -0.08% · co-movement -0.39WTI crude · not measurable (below the noise floor)
- USD strength-0.32%DXY today +0.34% · co-movement -0.94 by definition
- Haven / fearnot measurable (below the noise floor)VIX · not measurable (below the noise floor)
- Risk appetitenot measurable (below the noise floor)Nasdaq 100 · not measurable (below the noise floor)
Measured on daily returns, out of sample. This EXPLAINS today's move, it does not forecast tomorrow's — that same measurement shows these numbers do not predict direction. Full map on the home page.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- Turned BULLISH
- Turned BEARISH
- Turned NEUTRAL
The line is real price, session by session. Each marker is a point where we changed our call, placed at the price at that moment. Look at the line AFTER each marker to see whether that turn was right. The day-by-day detail is just below.
- BEARISHThe break below 1.1164, compounded by French political risk and higher oil, opens a path toward 1.11.
- SIDEWAYSUS yields near 5.24% cap EUR/USD, while a crowded speculative short limits the downside.
- SIDEWAYSCrowded speculative EUR shorts offset eurozone fiscal and energy headwinds, leaving the pair range-bound.
- SIDEWAYSFrench debt stress weighs on the euro at resistance, but crowded short positioning limits follow-through.
- SIDEWAYSEuropean fiscal stress weighs on the euro, but crowded shorts and lower US yields hold price on 1.121 support.
- BEARISHFrance's fiscal-political crisis is spilling into European bank stocks and pitting the ECB against bond investors.
- BEARISHFrench fiscal contagion is spreading into bank credit and Spanish bonds, weighing on the euro.
- BEARISHFrench fiscal stress, with the OAT-Bund spread at its widest since 2011, is a euro-specific drag.
- BEARISHFrench fiscal stress and fresh fears of European sovereign-bond contagion keep the euro under pressure.
- BEARISHFrance's fiscal and political stress makes the euro the weakest link in the global bond rout.
- BEARISHFrance's fiscal and political crisis is turning the euro into a risk-premium currency.
- BEARISHEurozone sovereign stress, led by France, is draining demand for the euro.
- BEARISHFrench sovereign stress, with the OAT-Bund spread near 120bp, outweighs hot eurozone inflation as a euro driver.
- BEARISHA widening US-euro rate gap, with the Fed still pricing hikes, keeps the euro heavy near its 16-month low.
- SIDEWAYSUS yield pressure weighs on EURUSD, but crowded euro shorts and firm support at 1.1358 limit follow-through.
- SIDEWAYSThe US-Europe rate gap weighs on EUR/USD, but crowded EUR shorts and a tight 1.1357–1.1403 range cap the downside.
- SIDEWAYSBund yields at 2009 highs offset the drag from rising US yields, leaving EURUSD pinned in a tight range.
- SIDEWAYSA hawkish ECB offsets rising US yields, leaving EURUSD pinned at 1.1392 resistance.
- BEARISHSoaring US yields collide with fresh European stress from France's budget crisis.
- BEARISHA widening US-euro rate differential, as US yields hit multi-decade highs, keeps pressure on EUR/USD.
- BEARISHWidening US-euro rate divergence, with US 2s at 4.76% and eurozone services PMIs below 50.
- BEARISHFrench sovereign credit stress and a fractured German government compound a yield gap already running hard against the euro.
- BEARISHA far-right German election win plus a possible US troop drawdown adds political risk premium to a euro already losing on rate spreads.
- BEARISHA widening US-euro rate gap plus a European risk premium the ECB cannot answer with hikes.
- BEARISHSaudi Arabia cutting crude to European refiners is a terms-of-trade shock hitting an economy whose central bank is now not expected to hike until March 2027.
- BEARISHPolicy divergence keeps widening as the Fed gets repriced toward an October hike while the ECB stays parked.
- BEARISHPolicy divergence is widening as the Fed guides to more hikes while Europe's long end forces the BoE to halt 20-30 year gilt sales.
- BEARISHA near-100bp French-German 10y spread, the widest since 2012, is a domestic risk premium the euro carries alone into a Fed hike.
- BEARISHThe OAT-Bund spread near 100bp, its widest since 2012, is a euro-specific risk premium landing into a Fed hike.
- SIDEWAYSThe pair is locked in a tight pre-FOMC range with neither rate differentials nor European geopolitics able to move it.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
Zelensky says Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain exports, warning an agricultural crisis will begin within two months.
x.comLe Pen and Melenchon widen their poll lead and would likely meet in a runoff, raising French political risk for the euro.
x.comPoland warns NATO to brace for a potentially deadly Russian hybrid attack, the FT reports, raising European security risk.
x.comFrench-Italian bond yield spread widens to its highest since the euro's founding, as investors demand more compensation.
x.comCommerzbank warns France's debt crisis could pose greater risks to markets than Greece's did.
x.comBank of Spain raises 2026 inflation forecast to 3.9% and growth forecast to 2.6%, adding pressure on ECB.
x.comEuropean bank shares slide again, with Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank down more than 5% on bond-market stress.
x.com +1UK 30-year gilt yield jumps over 12bps to 6.034%, the highest since 1998, adding to global bond selloff.
x.com +1French-German bond yield spread widens to highest since the 2011 eurozone crisis as investors grow increasingly uneasy about France.
x.comUS and China each announce tariff cuts on about $30 billion of goods, covering US consumer imports and agricultural products.
x.comFrance's extreme bond move pushes EUR/USD to most oversold since 2015 as yields hit equity pain threshold with oil at $100.
x.comFrance's bond risk premium widens to 150bp, the highest since 2012, as fiscal worries deepen.
x.com +6