Gold (XAU/USD) — macro call
The current view, the scored evidence, and the news that actually moved Gold (XAU/USD). Horizon of hours to weeks — not scalping.
- 1 session
- +1.21%
- 5 sessions
- +1.32%
Close of the most recent completed session (daily candle), not a live quote. Entry/exit levels and invalidation live in the call itself.
Current view
SIDEWAYS
Scored hit rate
32% across 120 calls that reached their deadline
The full call — reasoning, levels, invalidation — reaches you in the bot the moment it publishes, instead of waiting to open here. Get free analysis
Scoring rules fixed in advance: gold and forex ±0.5%, BTC ±2%. Each call is scored at the horizon it declared for itself. EVERY call counts toward the denominator — including when price goes sideways: “sideways” is itself a prediction, and it counts as wrong if price breaks the band.
Which channel is moving Gold (XAU/USD)
Two channels are equally tied over the last 60 sessions: USD strength (-0.49) and Haven / fear (-0.45) — the gap between them sits inside the margin of error, so we do not pick one.
- Real yields+0.03%10-year yield today -0.08% · co-movement -0.29WTI crude · not measurable (below the noise floor)
- USD strength-0.74%DXY today +0.34% · co-movement -0.49
- Haven / fear-0.24%VIX today +2.49% · co-movement -0.45 ⚠ inverted
- Risk appetite-0.26%Nasdaq 100 today -0.71% · co-movement +0.31
Measured on daily returns, out of sample. This EXPLAINS today's move, it does not forecast tomorrow's — that same measurement shows these numbers do not predict direction. Full map on the home page.
The call, day by day
Each row is where a day's view settled, with the main driver. Open a date for the full reasoning, key levels and invalidation.
- Turned BULLISH
- Turned BEARISH
- Turned NEUTRAL
The line is real price, session by session. Each marker is a point where we changed our call, placed at the price at that moment. Look at the line AFTER each marker to see whether that turn was right. The day-by-day detail is just below.
- SIDEWAYSA firming dollar and elevated real yields cap gold, while geopolitics fails to generate a haven bid.
- SIDEWAYSEasing but still-elevated real yields leave gold range-bound until Wednesday's CPI sets the next direction.
- BULLISHEasing real-rate pressure, with 10y TIPS down to 2.87% and the long end targeted by Bessent's auction cuts, gives gold room to extend.
- SIDEWAYSA softening Fed path and mounting pressure on Fed independence offset 10y real yields still pinned near 2.92%.
- SIDEWAYSReal yields at a 2.91% extreme cap gold, but today's yield relief has pushed price onto the 4,138.1 pivot.
- BEARISHRecord-high real yields (10y TIPS 2.95%) keep overpowering geopolitical safe-haven demand.
- SIDEWAYS10y real yields at 2.92% (z +3.01) cap any rally, while a softer dollar cushions the downside.
- SIDEWAYSReal yields at 2.88% (z +2.93) cap gold, but a 6.5% monthly drop has already priced much of the squeeze.
- BEARISHReal yields near post-2008 highs (10y TIPS 2.88%) keep gold's opportunity cost punitive.
- BEARISHReal yields near cycle highs (10y TIPS 2.88%, z +2.93) keep the opportunity cost of holding gold punishing.
- BEARISH10y real yields at 2.93%, three standard deviations above their one-year mean, keep the cost of holding gold punitive.
- SIDEWAYSFalling front-end yields and a firmer dollar plus oil are pulling gold in opposite directions, leaving no edge before NFP.
- SIDEWAYSThe US 10y at a cycle-high 5.293% caps gold, while soft Core PCE and JOLTS limit further front-end pressure.
- BEARISH10y real yields at 2.83% (z +3.03) with ~125bp of hikes priced keep the opportunity cost of holding gold punitive.
- BEARISHRising real yields, with 10y TIPS at 2.85% (z +3.17), keep draining demand for a zero-yield asset.
- BEARISHReal yields at 2.85% (z +3.17) and an October hike priced into the 2y keep the opportunity cost of holding gold punitive.
- BEARISHReal yields keep climbing, with 10y TIPS at 2.85% (+24bp in five sessions), which leaves the non-yielding metal on the defensive.
- BEARISH10y real yields jumped 13bp to 2.76% (z +2.89), the steepest opportunity cost for gold since 2008.
- BEARISHRecord-high real yields, with 10-year TIPS at 2.63% and four Fed hikes priced, keep capping gold.
- BEARISHReal yields near 2008 highs, with the 10-year at a fresh 5.114% peak, keep the opportunity cost of holding gold elevated.
- SIDEWAYSRecord-high real yields (10-year TIPS at 2.68%) cap gold, but strong Chinese physical demand props up the floor.
- BEARISHReal 10y yields at a cycle-high 2.61% while twelve straight geopolitical escalations have paid gold nothing.
- SIDEWAYSReal yields at cycle highs keep capping gold even as the Middle East escalates, because this regime no longer pays a war premium in metals.
- BEARISHReal 10y yields at 2.61% (z +2.45) with breakevens pinned keep overriding every geopolitical headline.
- BEARISHCycle-high real yields (10y TIPS 2.68%, z +2.78) plus a priced October Fed hike keep raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- BULLISHThe Gulf war premium is rotating out of crude and into gold as a haven and reserve bid, not an inflation bid.
- BEARISHReal yields at cycle extremes — 10-year TIPS 2.60% (z +2.53) — impose a punishing carry cost on a zero-yield asset.
- BEARISHTen-year real yields at 2.60% (z +2.57) and still climbing are the binding constraint on gold, not the headline flow.
- BEARISHReal 10-year yields at 2.55%, a 2008 high, cap gold while the war premium keeps flowing into crude and freight instead.
- SIDEWAYSTen-year real yields at a 2008 high of 2.55% cap every rally while geopolitics keeps failing to transmit into bullion.
News that moved it
Sources include newswires, central banks and reporting accounts on social media. Every item links straight to its original source — click through and check.
UK PM Burnham says the Fairford incident was almost certainly carried out by Iran's IRGC, widening the conflict's reach.
x.comAnti-ship ballistic missiles reportedly fired from Iran's Yazd province toward UAE's Fujairah port, per Sabereen News.
x.comHouthis claim strikes on Dammam airport and Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia's eastern province; Riyadh has not confirmed.
x.com +2Trump announces Russia and Ukraine agree to an energy ceasefire, effective immediately, easing supply and geopolitical risk premium.
x.com +6Trump says he will 'look at' joining Saudi Arabia against the Houthis after the deadly airport strike.
cnbc.comAttack on Saudi Arabia's main airport kills 12 and wounds over 300, adding fresh pressure on an already strained Middle East.
x.comHouthi missile strike kills people at Riyadh airport, forcing evacuation and closure of Saudi Arabia's main international hub.
x.com +12Iran's Revolutionary Guards say an oil tanker exploded and caught fire after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz.
x.com +1Russia reportedly supplying missiles to Iran after helping Tehran target US bases across the region.
x.comTrump says Putin agreed to release Russian diesel onto global markets, raising hopes for lower fuel prices and easing inflation pressure.
x.com +8New York Fed intervened in the FX market on behalf of the US Treasury.
x.com +1US payrolls badly miss at 29k versus 90k forecast; unemployment rises even as household-survey employment jumps 406k.
cnbc.com +4