US core PCE — scenarios before, scorecard after

Before — what we said

Four numbers land at 12:30 UTC, but the market really prices two: Core PCE and jobless claims. Advance GDP at 2.1% against 2.0% prior is a snapshot of a quarter already gone; Core PCE decides what is left of Fed hike premium. What makes this release unusual is the backdrop: risk-off is genuine — VIX 20.66, Nasdaq -6.2% on the week, EM equities at 3.5-month lows — yet the dollar will not bid, with DXY at 100.93 and the 30-year at pre-2008 highs. A bear-steepening curve alongside an offered dollar is the signature of fiscal repricing, not of rate fear. That is why gold, BTC and the euro are all supported while equities fall. We keep the running bias; only a clearly hot Core PCE overturns it, because that is when hike premium returns and the dollar finds buyers again.

• Core PCE m/m >= 0.4% (hoặc Advance GDP Price Index q/q >= 3.0%) đi kèm Advance GDP q/q >= 2.6% và Unemployment Claims <= 220k Hot — Core PCE m/m at 0.4% or above (or GDP Price Index q/q at 3.0%+), GDP at 2.6%+ and claims below 220k: Fed tightening premium returns, the curve bear-flattens, and the dollar gets its first real reason to bid all week. This is the only path that flips all three running biases at once.
• Advance GDP q/q 1.8%–2.4%, Core PCE m/m 0.2%–0.3%, GDP Price Index q/q <= 2.7%, Claims 210k–255k In line — GDP 1.8%–2.4%, Core PCE 0.2%–0.3%, GDP Price Index below 2.7%, claims 210k–255k: nothing forces the Fed to respond and the fiscal channel keeps control. The dollar stays offered, gold and the euro retain their support, and BTC continues to outperform equities. This is the path we consider most likely.
• Advance GDP q/q <= 1.5% trong khi GDP Price Index q/q >= 2.8% hoặc Claims >= 265k Growth miss with sticky prices — GDP at 1.5% or below while GDP Price Index is 2.8%+ or claims are 265k+: the market prices additional cuts, real yields fall, and gold and the euro benefit most clearly. BTC stays neutral as the liquidity bid is offset by equity-driven risk selling.

The thing worth watching is not the headline but whether the 30-year yield and the dollar move together or apart after the print: steeper with a weaker dollar confirms the fiscal channel, steeper with a stronger dollar means the Fed is being repriced and the current bias breaks.