Bank of Japan — scenarios before, scorecard after
We publish numbered scenarios ahead of every Bank of Japan release, then check them against real price action. Both live on this page, unedited.
No release has reached its review window yet — no hit rate to publish.
— BOJ press conference: the yen is the variable, the euro only borrows the move
Release:(UTC)in 15 h 51 min
Before — what we said
No forecast, no prior — what gets priced here is wording. Context: today's DXY +0.25% is almost entirely a yen story, while EURUSD is still +0.54% on flows leaving the dollar. So we put our only primary call on EURUSD, in line with the running bullish bias. Gold is deliberately skipped: the BOJ's one channel into gold is the global term premium, and that channel opens only in the two tail branches — in the base case gold sits inside its 33.2 H4 ATR and is still led by the US curve, not JGBs. Bitcoin is skipped too: only a genuine carry unwind reaches it, and a 24h change of 0.05% says this market is not looking at Tokyo at all.
Ueda nêu mốc tăng lãi suất trong tầm ngắn (tháng 10/2026 hoặc sớm hơn) hoặc bỏ ngôn từ về chính sách nới lỏng — USDJPY giảm >= 1,0% và JGB 10 năm +5bp trở lên trong 3 giờ sau họp báoHawkish branch: Ueda names a near-term hike, USDJPY falls 1.0% or more and the 10-year JGB adds at least 5 basis points. The dollar loses a leg, EURUSD takes the smaller share of that move and can test 1.1463; a firmer global term premium supports gold, while a partial carry unwind is a headwind for Bitcoin.Giữ nguyên giọng 'tuỳ dữ liệu', không có mốc thời gian nào — USDJPY dao động trong ±0,5% và JGB 10 năm trong ±3bp; EURUSD giữ trên 1,1434Base branch — on script: the data-dependent line is repeated with no timeline, USDJPY stays within ±0.5% and the 10-year JGB within ±3 basis points. The hedging premium in DXY drains away, EURUSD holds 1.1434 and retests 1.1447; gold stays inside its 33.2 ATR near 4,039.0 because nothing new arrives for it.BOJ đẩy lùi kỳ vọng thắt chặt, nhấn vào động lực tiền lương/giá yếu — USDJPY tăng >= 1,0% và DXY vượt 101,50 (từ 101,054)Dovish branch: the BOJ pushes back on tightening, USDJPY rises 1.0% or more and DXY clears 101.50. A weaker yen carries the dollar higher, EURUSD slips through 1.1419 — this is precisely the branch that makes our call wrong; gold faces a dollar headwind and Bitcoin barely reacts.
The most telling thing is not USDJPY but the 10-year JGB read alongside the US 30-year at pre-2008 highs: if both rise together, this stops being a yen story.
This release has not reached its review window yet. The after section will be added to this same page.