US ISM manufacturing PMI — scenarios before, scorecard after

Before — what we said

This is the week's first US print, landing Monday at 14:00 UTC. The backdrop is unusual: US10Y at 4.745% and up 6.03% on the month, a hike expected at the coming FOMC, and yet DXY closed at 99.80 after a 1.65% weekly decline. The dollar is refusing to be paid for its rate advantage — which is why EURUSD keeps a bullish bias. We are making calls on gold and EURUSD only. Bitcoin is deliberately left out: the transmission from a manufacturing survey to BTC barely exists, and its standing bearish bias comes from Strategy's authorisation to sell up to $5bn of Bitcoin — a coin-market matter, not an ISM one. Note that gold, DXY and EURUSD here are Friday closes, with a Sunday 21:00 UTC gap still ahead of them.

1. Numbered threshold

   ISM Manufacturing PMI ≥ 55.0 OR ISM Prices ≥ 73.0 (i.e. at or above the prior print, no cooling versus the 70.0 forecast)

   Hot — PMI ≥ 55.0 or Prices ≥ 73.0: the case for a Fed hike is reinforced at its hardest point, input prices, yields gain room above 4.745%, and the dollar finally collects the reward it declined all last week. Gold and EURUSD both come under pressure; this is the only one of the three paths that breaks the bullish EURUSD bias.

2. Numbered threshold

   PMI between 53.0 and 55.0 AND Prices between 68.0 and 72.0

   In line — PMI 53.0–55.0 and Prices 68.0–72.0: the data confirms manufacturing expansion while price pressure eases from 73.0 toward 70.0, not new enough to bend the yield path. Everything then returns to the standing theme: term premium weighs on gold, while EURUSD remains the cleanest vehicle for dollar decorrelation and holds its 1.1527 base.

3. Numbered threshold

   PMI ≤ 52.5 AND ISM Prices ≤ 68.0 (slower growth alongside input prices cooling faster than forecast)

   Soft — PMI ≤ 52.5 and Prices ≤ 68.0: slower growth alongside faster price cooling puts a question mark over the very hike now being anticipated. A step back in real yields is the only condition sufficient to flip the bearish gold bias, and a softer dollar would carry EURUSD away from its old base.

Calls published before the print

• Gold (XAU/USD)BEARISHConviction 5/10

  Invalidated if: Gold clears and holds above the 4,063.1 resistance within a few hours of the release (more than half of the 30.6 H4 ATR14 from the 4,045.3 reference).

• EUR/USDBULLISHConviction 5/10

  Invalidated if: EURUSD loses 1.1508 after the release — the 1.1527 base broken rather than merely tested.

These exact rows are graded against real prices below. The pre-event note is never edited after the print.

The most telling detail is how the dollar behaves if Prices lands right at 70.0: if DXY still cannot lift on a print that leans its way on rates, that is further evidence its problem is fiscal rather than cyclical.